Sunday, March 22, 2009

Its the economic performance that counts!


During the minister pay debate, the main argument to justify the extraordinary pay packets of the PAP leaders was performance. However, when performance is no good, it is time for an explanation. Be it Mas Selamat's escape, having the worst performing economy in Asia or losing billions in bad investments, the explanation can be made that blame lies else where and not with the extraordinary leaders who are in charge of Singapore. Singapore will put in the worst economic performance in Asia and the explanation is that Singapore is an export dependent economy and when our trading partners slow down we are hit badly. If you swallow this explanation wholesale - it is basically saying that there is nothing we can do about it we are forever at the mercy of external demand. But why are we doing so badly? The rest of Asia is also dependent on external demand and Hong Kong is about the same size as us. Don't forget the govt plays a big role in our economy - they pick the industries Singapore chooses to go into casinos, biotech, etc, they strategically plan our economy and the level of domestic demand....they make all the moves on the economic chessboard and this is where they got us.
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"MM Lee took issue with criticisms of Singapore's economic model, such as that from a recent Wall Street Journal editorial which said the Republic needed to refocus on the domestic consumption of goods that are now produced for export. 'Four million people to sustain industries supplying top-end goods to the world? That's rubbish.' Singapore has no choice but to export, he stressed. " - Straits Times [Link]
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I don't think anyone in the right mind is asking Singapore to stop exporting or become solely dependent on domestic demand - that would be rubbish indeed. However, more can be done to strengthen our domestic demand so that our economic performance does not fluctuate so wildly on external demand - it is only one piece of the puzzle of restructuring this economy for more sustainable growth. The PAP govt had focussed primarily on GDP growth rather than sustainability of the growth - during the 'boom time' aka Golden Period, they would drive the export engine at the expense of almost everything else to chalk up high GDP growth figures - now we are seeing the downside of this strategy. You shouldn't buy the argument that 'there is no choice' because other economies with similar population sizes such as Israel, Finland and Hong Kong have a higher domestic economy component in their GDP.
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This recession is not painful just because of its length and depth. It is especially painful for Singaporeans because they are entering this recession with many problems the PAP govt did not solve when times were good. We are entering this recession with the highest household debt in Asia and the worst income inequality among developed Asian countries. At the onset of this recession 8% of the people have already defaulted on their HDB loans and many couldn't afford even afford electricity even before the recession. The govt ran an economy that swung wildly - this being the 3rd recession in 10 years but did not put in place safety nets that would serve as stabilisers for our society.
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The PAP claims that it can bring about positive changes on its own and that there is no need for a 2-party system. The 1st step towards change is to admit that things can be done better. They are not even able to take the 1st step....


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