Australia's new and powerful friend

Apr 7, 2009

Australia's new and powerful friend
By Purnendra Jain and Gerry Groot

ADELAIDE - China is emerging as Australia's new great and powerful friend. The Australia-China bond, strengthened greatly under the previous prime minister John Howard, is now being reinforced by Prime Minister Kevin Rudd.

For the previous conservative government, China was an acquired interest, but Rudd has built a career around China by studying Chinese at university and through subsequent diplomatic postings in Beijing. He is a great China enthusiast and recognizes very clearly China's importance to Australia and world affairs. Just as importantly, Rudd is extremely well known and popular in China and presumably has longstanding relationships with Chinese leaders. He has even presented himself, in Chinese, as a true friend of China, one prepared to tell leaders the truth even if it is unwelcome.

China is now Australia's largest business partner, with two-way trade nearing A$65 billion (US$46.6 billion). Chinese students are now the biggest group in Australia's third-largest export - international education. At the end of their studies, many go on to seek permanent residency and join the rapidly growing numbers of skilled Chinese migrants coming from the both mainland China and the Chinese diaspora from all around Asia. Through hard work and educational attainment, more and more occupy high-profile positions, including in politics.

But the Australia-China friendship will be very different from Australia's previous great and powerful friends, Great Britain and the United States. Based on the developments of recent days, the trajectory of this friendship is almost certainly going to encounter significant rough patches.

Despite China's growing importance, many Australians remain suspicious of their northern neighbor. As a result of history and culture, anxieties linger. Fears of Chinese migration and cheap labor in the 19th century were replaced by fear of Chinese communism after 1949. Moreover, Australian soldiers have fought China's People's Liberation Army and its allies in Korea, Malaysia and Vietnam. Many Australians also remain deeply concerned about the Chinese government's attitudes to human rights within its own borders and the nature of China's government in general.

To compound these worries there are renewed concerns about Chinese spying and state corporate takeovers of Australian strategic resource companies. One recent Chinese takeover of an Australian miner was initially rejected because of one mine's proximity to an old rocket testing area, but also uncomfortably close to America's spy base at Pine Gap, near Alice Springs. China then, is no Britain or United States: nations which have underwritten Australian security through longstanding and tested relationships.

Yet, just when Australia has a prime minister in an ideal position to balance and address these concerns to help Australians understand the importance and role of a rising China to Australia and the world, things have gone awry. Over the past few weeks, Rudd and Defense Minister Joel Fitzgibbon have probably fostered increased suspicion.

When Rudd "secretly" met on March 21 with China's propaganda chief, Li Changchun, the local press and many others were outraged. Australian media were not briefed about this visit, but Li's meeting was televised in China. Similarly, it was revealed that while in opposition Fitzgibbon forgot to formally declare two fully-paid trips to Beijing sponsored by a Chinese Australian business woman who was reportedly well connected with the Chinese government and army. It then transpired there was another such visit even earlier.

To compound Rudd's oversight, it also came to light that Zhou Yongkang, China's former security and intelligence chief, had visited Australia in 2008. Rudd may have very good reasons to have met with him, but given the suspicions of China, it was another bad call. Yongkang is now a member of China's powerful nine-member Standing Committee of the Politburo. The lapses reflect a lack of transparency when dealing with China and in Rudd's case, a particularly dangerous misjudgment for one needing popular support to help Australia by working with China.

Despite his clear interest if not passion for things Chinese, Rudd is not a naive, unconditional "panda hugger" and understands the possible dangers inherent in China's rise. He is clearly concerned about China's military intentions and strategic goals. Last year, Rudd expressed concerns about a new arms race in the region and although not naming China, he clearly meant Beijing.

However, Rudd also wishes to prevent fears of China's rise becoming a self-fulfilling prophesy and is seeking to use his position to help mediate between the US (and the West more generally) and China. The intention is to ensure China's growing power will be harnessed to the greater good of world peace and economic development. This goal is reflected in Rudd's advocacy of a much greater global role for China in organizations, including the International Monetary Fund.

On present indications, China is set to influence the world in ways that only a superpower does. That is why some high-profile Americans are proposing a Group of Two comprising the US and China. In the meantime, the effort to "normalize" China by enmeshing it further into international bodies and increase its contributions continues apace.

Unfortunately, Rudd, despite being in an unprecedented position to promote an integrative agenda and win international - especially American - support through his apparent rapport with US President Barack Obama, is in danger of losing vital support within Australia.

This is because Rudd has not yet publicly articulated a coherent plan to make it clear to Australian voters that being in China's good books is indeed a vital national interest, not somehow selling Australia short, let alone selling out. Rudd's apparent embarrassment at being seated next to ambassador Fu Ying in a recent BBC interview is easily construed as reflecting a fear that this would be construed as once again, literally and metaphorically, as being too close to China. His fear of Australian reactions and playing into the hands of the parliamentary opposition may be clouding his judgement.

Rudd understands China's rising importance both to the world and to Australia, a country of 21 million people with a history of dependence on powerful friends. Much is riding on how, or even whether, he can convince Australians that their national interests will indeed be well served by trusting him to work with China and the rest of the world.

He can only convince them though, if he first makes a clear case about how and why he needs to work with an opaque and authoritarian regime to help it transform into one Australians and others can trust. If he does not yet have such a vision, he had better develop one soon.

Purnendra Jain is professor and Gerry Groot is senior lecturer in Asian Studies at Australia's Adelaide University.

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