This century’s most important relationship
... and why each would want Singapore on itsside, according to MM Lee
Friday • April 10, 2009
Leong Wee Keat
TIES between the United States and China will become the world’s most important bilateral relationship in the latter part of the 21st century, similar to the US-Soviet Union relationship during the Cold War, said Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew.
“As the dominant global power, preserving the status quo is in US interests. As a rising power, China will not acquiesce to a status quo indefinitely. Competition is inevitable, but conflict is not,” said Mr Lee.
While the economic crisis would hasten China’s growth vis-a-vis the US and allow the Chinese to close in on the lead the US enjoys, Mr Lee feels relations will remain stable — provided the world does not slide into protectionism.
For the next few decades, America is most likely to remain the dominant global player. China, on its part, will be a global player “in another three to four decades”; already it has “made beachheads in the Middle East, Africa and Latin America”, but its preoccupations for now are domestic and in North-east and South-east Asia.
In Mr Lee’s view, it is not China’s interest to displace America now but to bide its time.
The Chinese’s “great advantage is not in military influence but in their economic influence”, he added. “They have the manpower to do things cheaper in every part of the world ... And at a fraction of the cost of the American expatriate ... Economically, their influence can only grow, and grow beyond the capabilities of America.”
Could a “G2” — a partnership of the US and China envisioned by some US thinkers — materialise? And how would that affect small states like Singapore, asked the East Asian Institute’s director Zheng Yongnian.
“Would small states have more or less international space than in the Cold War era, when the world was divided by the Soviets and the US?” said Professor Zheng.
Mr Lee said a partial G2 dialogue already exists, with China and the US institutionalising high-level talks aimed at enhancing bilateral ties.
But he does not believe the Chinese are ready to be on the same level as the US. “Maybe in another 50 to 100 years, they might have the same technology, the same capabilities. At the moment, it’s asymmetrical,” he said. “Yes, it’s a sudden rise ... but if you put a Chinese fighter aircraft against an American fighter aircraft, I would put my money on the American.”
As for Singapore, Mr Lee was of the opinion that both powers would want to have the Republic on their side, because of its strategic location.
Noting that the Americans have a naval logistics base here, he said: “We have told the Chinese that if your ships want to come to our naval base, you are welcomed. As we welcome Indian ships and so on. We are a kind of sea-going citizen. Omni-directional, as the Japanese would say.”
As for the world’s current financial and economic woes, he said, these require a “global rebalancing of consumption and savings” — a change in economic relationships between the US and China. “The American consumers must spend within their means. The Chinese consumers must increase their domestic spending,” he said. “This will be a difficult transition.”
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