Probably no elections until end 2010
A little more than a month ago, I was contemplating in a post here if there will be a general election (GE) at the end of this year. Since then, after all the "hints" I've see in the global economy, I have come to a conclusion that there will not be a GE end of this year. I see the next GE at maybe somewhere end of next year earliest, which is 2010.
Initially, I thought that a GE this year is almost certain. Our MM has pointed out that the current climate will persist for a minimum of 2 or 3 years. Either that or it will persist for more than 4 years. Our MM has also gave a dismal GDP growth prediction of -10% for this year. Furthermore, I have also spied improvement works being done in many estates. At that point in time, I really see the worse end of the prediction coming through.
However, there are a few indications that I've seen which points to a "NO GE" this year:
1. The original global crisis came about due to the collapse of the housing market in the US. If anyone noticed, they would have seen recently that the fixed mortgage and ARM rates in US going down to below 5% (Before, it was above 6.x%). The rates has even went down to almost 4.5%.
This would bring a welcome relief to many of the prime borrowers. This however does not point to a recovery, but instead I would say this is an indication that the market is finding a bottom.
Everyone is worried that the toxic assets in all the major banks balance sheets will be further written down. The problem is still there, with all the record job losses. But I suspect in the coming months, the jobless rate will start to decrease. I do not see the US jobless rates going above 9%. In fact, I will not be surprised that the 2Q jobless rates go below 8%.
In short, I find that the global economy is establishing a base, on which it can grow upon. Things seem to be slowly recovering after President Obama took over. This is not a time for conservatism.
2. Singapore recently did a "portfolio reshuffle" where some key personnel shifted to other portfolios. From a corporate perspective, this will not happen if a GE is coming.
It makes no sense that you will shift personnel around when a GE is around the corner.
3. Our property and stock market have been showing signs of revival. I won't say that it has recovered, but to me, it's an indication that credit is really flowing again after the recent budget measures.
Once credit is flowing, the economy will revive itself, from a business perspective. I also do not see that the Singapore banks are in any sort of trouble, which puzzles me on the valuation the market is giving to the 3 local banks.
In short, Singapore economy seems to be reviving in the 2Q, and the budget measures seem to be working. Therefore, I would see that the economy would somehow find a footing and recover somewhat by next year or 2011.
Of course it's too early to say that we're well on the road to recovery. Many things could still go wrong. People are still worried for example, that GM may file for Chapter 11 for example. However, they should note that filing for Chapter 11, and folding is different. Lehman Brothers folded up.
Judging from my own personal indicators, I think that the economy is finding its footing, and that a GE at this point in time is of no use to any party. In fact, a GE at this time may throw a spanner in the recovery by diverting attention away from the real problems. I also do not see a second budget measure soon, unless things take a turn for the worse after the 2Q.
There's also disenchantment on the ground on the recent Lehman Brothers fiasco. Our own unemployment numbers to be released soon may also cause some areas of concern among all Singaporeans. In fact, I've seen some graffiti with some chosen words about a political party.
A recovery will not be immediate, for Singapore or globally. US is definitely saving more now for their future. I was so surprised last year when I saw the household savings rate for the US. Those countries with high saving rates will have to "earn their keep", so as to speak. This will lead to some social policies change, and mindset change. Products and services will also soon be customised more for Aseans.
This year is definitely a year of change, not only globally, but for Singapore too. However, I do not think that a election will happen this year, as I do not yet see a prolonged recession hitting us.
http://forums.delphiforums.com/sunkopitiam/messages?msg=26717.1
Showing posts with label General Elections. Show all posts
Showing posts with label General Elections. Show all posts
Sunday, April 12, 2009
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
Singapore has 2.26m electors on list
Registers of Electors certified; S'pore has 2.26m electors on list
By Asha Popatlal, Channel NewsAsia | Posted: 07 April 2009 2117 hrs
SINGAPORE: The Registers of Electors for all 23 of Singapore's electoral divisions have been been certified. This is essentially an updated list of Singapore citizens who can vote.
The Elections Department said there are now 2,260,620 electors listed.
Those who want to look at the list can go to the Elections Department or any of the 105 Inspections Centres island-wide - which are primarily community centres and clubs.
Singaporeans who want to check their names in the Registers can also do it online at www.elections.gov.sg.
Meanwhile, if you are an overseas voter, registration which commenced on March 3 will remain open.
Singaporeans overseas can still submit their applications online to the Elections Department or go to any of the nine Overseas Registration Centres.
The Elections Department has said updating the registers is a "routine exercise" which is required by law within three years of the last election in May 2006. - CNA/vm
http://forums.delphiforums.com/sunkopitiam/messages?msg=26226.1
By Asha Popatlal, Channel NewsAsia | Posted: 07 April 2009 2117 hrs
SINGAPORE: The Registers of Electors for all 23 of Singapore's electoral divisions have been been certified. This is essentially an updated list of Singapore citizens who can vote.
The Elections Department said there are now 2,260,620 electors listed.
Those who want to look at the list can go to the Elections Department or any of the 105 Inspections Centres island-wide - which are primarily community centres and clubs.
Singaporeans who want to check their names in the Registers can also do it online at www.elections.gov.sg.
Meanwhile, if you are an overseas voter, registration which commenced on March 3 will remain open.
Singaporeans overseas can still submit their applications online to the Elections Department or go to any of the nine Overseas Registration Centres.
The Elections Department has said updating the registers is a "routine exercise" which is required by law within three years of the last election in May 2006. - CNA/vm
http://forums.delphiforums.com/sunkopitiam/messages?msg=26226.1
Monday, March 30, 2009
Independent candidates and their viability
Independent candidates and their viability
SINGAPORE - Much coverage has been given to the usual political parties ever since time memoral. The usual suspects aside, only one group of candidates remain overlooked - the independent candidates. In fact, only one independent candidate has been successful thus far, and no prizes for guessing but he’s none under than Mr Chiam See Tong. Mr Chiam contested unsuccessfully at Cairnhill constituency as an independent candidate before he went on to establish the Singapore Democratic Party. The rest, they say, is the stuff of legends.
There is great variance in the performance of independent candidates. Some scored low single digits (below 5%) while others like Mr Chiam managed more than 30% of the votes. However, the fact remains that independent candidates earn less votes on average as compared to party candidates, including those from the opposition. Thus, it appears that independent candidates are at a distinct disadvantage.
Political commentators have always reiterated that party brand name gives the candidate an edge. That is true to a certain extent. The Singaporean mindset, which has always been peppered with People’s Action Party, Workers’ Party and Singapore Democratic Party, may find independent candidates an unfamiliar proposition. This may count against the latter. And independent candidates who were relative unknowns before the elections may face an uphill struggle.
And it wouldn’t help independent candidates if they contested for the sake of expressing dissenting views while failing to articulate on suggested policies that can advance the voters’ interest. On this account, this has got more to do with the voters’ high expectations rather than the candidates’ shortcoming. These are the voters who expect candidates to bring something else to their table, other than dissenting views, and are likely to vote for parties who can fulfill their interests.
Besides organizational and logistical assistance, new candidates joining an established party enjoy the backing of popular party stalwarts during elections, and this may swing votes in their favour. For instance, Worker’s Party Mr Low Thia Khiang gave rally speeches in constituencies other than his own, throwing his weight behind his new candidates and assisting them. And this is considered a crucial move to help garner support for the new candidates.
So, does that mean independent candidates do not stand any chance?
The answer lies in the independent candidate in question. If the latter is both a well-known personality and proven leader with a string of achievements under his belt, voters may just overlook his independence which pretty much negates some of his disadvantage. And if the latter is a prominent member of a well-known organization, his profile would be boosted a few notches, especially when he is considered an authority in certain areas. In fact, some postulated that as discontentment with the current government grows, more of such independent candidates will surface to contest the elections to address the pertinent issues that are the source of such unhappiness.
Thus, although the proverbial independent candidate may face daunting odds, the latter’s success or failure hinges on who he is and what he has to offer.
Independent candidates and their viability
the kent ridge common: Latest post
Are independent candidates are at a disadvantage?
Photo By: eve+line
By Kelvin Teo ⋅ March 30, 2009
Email This Post Email This Post
Print This Post Print This Post
SINGAPORE - Much coverage has been given to the usual political parties ever since time memoral. The usual suspects aside, only one group of candidates remain overlooked - the independent candidates. In fact, only one independent candidate has been successful thus far, and no prizes for guessing but he’s none under than Mr Chiam See Tong. Mr Chiam contested unsuccessfully at Cairnhill constituency as an independent candidate before he went on to establish the Singapore Democratic Party. The rest, they say, is the stuff of legends.
There is great variance in the performance of independent candidates. Some scored low single digits (below 5%) while others like Mr Chiam managed more than 30% of the votes. However, the fact remains that independent candidates earn less votes on average as compared to party candidates, including those from the opposition. Thus, it appears that independent candidates are at a distinct disadvantage.
Political commentators have always reiterated that party brand name gives the candidate an edge. That is true to a certain extent. The Singaporean mindset, which has always been peppered with People’s Action Party, Workers’ Party and Singapore Democratic Party, may find independent candidates an unfamiliar proposition. This may count against the latter. And independent candidates who were relative unknowns before the elections may face an uphill struggle.
And it wouldn’t help independent candidates if they contested for the sake of expressing dissenting views while failing to articulate on suggested policies that can advance the voters’ interest. On this account, this has got more to do with the voters’ high expectations rather than the candidates’ shortcoming. These are the voters who expect candidates to bring something else to their table, other than dissenting views, and are likely to vote for parties who can fulfill their interests.
Besides organizational and logistical assistance, new candidates joining an established party enjoy the backing of popular party stalwarts during elections, and this may swing votes in their favour. For instance, Worker’s Party Mr Low Thia Khiang gave rally speeches in constituencies other than his own, throwing his weight behind his new candidates and assisting them. And this is considered a crucial move to help garner support for the new candidates.
So, does that mean independent candidates do not stand any chance?
The answer lies in the independent candidate in question. If the latter is both a well-known personality and proven leader with a string of achievements under his belt, voters may just overlook his independence which pretty much negates some of his disadvantage. And if the latter is a prominent member of a well-known organization, his profile would be boosted a few notches, especially when he is considered an authority in certain areas. In fact, some postulated that as discontentment with the current government grows, more of such independent candidates will surface to contest the elections to address the pertinent issues that are the source of such unhappiness.
Thus, although the proverbial independent candidate may face daunting odds, the latter’s success or failure hinges on who he is and what he has to offer.
http://forums.delphiforums.com/sunkopitiam/messages?msg=25530.1
SINGAPORE - Much coverage has been given to the usual political parties ever since time memoral. The usual suspects aside, only one group of candidates remain overlooked - the independent candidates. In fact, only one independent candidate has been successful thus far, and no prizes for guessing but he’s none under than Mr Chiam See Tong. Mr Chiam contested unsuccessfully at Cairnhill constituency as an independent candidate before he went on to establish the Singapore Democratic Party. The rest, they say, is the stuff of legends.
There is great variance in the performance of independent candidates. Some scored low single digits (below 5%) while others like Mr Chiam managed more than 30% of the votes. However, the fact remains that independent candidates earn less votes on average as compared to party candidates, including those from the opposition. Thus, it appears that independent candidates are at a distinct disadvantage.
Political commentators have always reiterated that party brand name gives the candidate an edge. That is true to a certain extent. The Singaporean mindset, which has always been peppered with People’s Action Party, Workers’ Party and Singapore Democratic Party, may find independent candidates an unfamiliar proposition. This may count against the latter. And independent candidates who were relative unknowns before the elections may face an uphill struggle.
And it wouldn’t help independent candidates if they contested for the sake of expressing dissenting views while failing to articulate on suggested policies that can advance the voters’ interest. On this account, this has got more to do with the voters’ high expectations rather than the candidates’ shortcoming. These are the voters who expect candidates to bring something else to their table, other than dissenting views, and are likely to vote for parties who can fulfill their interests.
Besides organizational and logistical assistance, new candidates joining an established party enjoy the backing of popular party stalwarts during elections, and this may swing votes in their favour. For instance, Worker’s Party Mr Low Thia Khiang gave rally speeches in constituencies other than his own, throwing his weight behind his new candidates and assisting them. And this is considered a crucial move to help garner support for the new candidates.
So, does that mean independent candidates do not stand any chance?
The answer lies in the independent candidate in question. If the latter is both a well-known personality and proven leader with a string of achievements under his belt, voters may just overlook his independence which pretty much negates some of his disadvantage. And if the latter is a prominent member of a well-known organization, his profile would be boosted a few notches, especially when he is considered an authority in certain areas. In fact, some postulated that as discontentment with the current government grows, more of such independent candidates will surface to contest the elections to address the pertinent issues that are the source of such unhappiness.
Thus, although the proverbial independent candidate may face daunting odds, the latter’s success or failure hinges on who he is and what he has to offer.
Independent candidates and their viability
the kent ridge common: Latest post
Are independent candidates are at a disadvantage?
Photo By: eve+line
By Kelvin Teo ⋅ March 30, 2009
Email This Post Email This Post
Print This Post Print This Post
SINGAPORE - Much coverage has been given to the usual political parties ever since time memoral. The usual suspects aside, only one group of candidates remain overlooked - the independent candidates. In fact, only one independent candidate has been successful thus far, and no prizes for guessing but he’s none under than Mr Chiam See Tong. Mr Chiam contested unsuccessfully at Cairnhill constituency as an independent candidate before he went on to establish the Singapore Democratic Party. The rest, they say, is the stuff of legends.
There is great variance in the performance of independent candidates. Some scored low single digits (below 5%) while others like Mr Chiam managed more than 30% of the votes. However, the fact remains that independent candidates earn less votes on average as compared to party candidates, including those from the opposition. Thus, it appears that independent candidates are at a distinct disadvantage.
Political commentators have always reiterated that party brand name gives the candidate an edge. That is true to a certain extent. The Singaporean mindset, which has always been peppered with People’s Action Party, Workers’ Party and Singapore Democratic Party, may find independent candidates an unfamiliar proposition. This may count against the latter. And independent candidates who were relative unknowns before the elections may face an uphill struggle.
And it wouldn’t help independent candidates if they contested for the sake of expressing dissenting views while failing to articulate on suggested policies that can advance the voters’ interest. On this account, this has got more to do with the voters’ high expectations rather than the candidates’ shortcoming. These are the voters who expect candidates to bring something else to their table, other than dissenting views, and are likely to vote for parties who can fulfill their interests.
Besides organizational and logistical assistance, new candidates joining an established party enjoy the backing of popular party stalwarts during elections, and this may swing votes in their favour. For instance, Worker’s Party Mr Low Thia Khiang gave rally speeches in constituencies other than his own, throwing his weight behind his new candidates and assisting them. And this is considered a crucial move to help garner support for the new candidates.
So, does that mean independent candidates do not stand any chance?
The answer lies in the independent candidate in question. If the latter is both a well-known personality and proven leader with a string of achievements under his belt, voters may just overlook his independence which pretty much negates some of his disadvantage. And if the latter is a prominent member of a well-known organization, his profile would be boosted a few notches, especially when he is considered an authority in certain areas. In fact, some postulated that as discontentment with the current government grows, more of such independent candidates will surface to contest the elections to address the pertinent issues that are the source of such unhappiness.
Thus, although the proverbial independent candidate may face daunting odds, the latter’s success or failure hinges on who he is and what he has to offer.
http://forums.delphiforums.com/sunkopitiam/messages?msg=25530.1
Friday, March 27, 2009
Cabinet changes - what does it mean for next General Elections?
Cabinet changes - what does it mean for next General Elections?
There have been many cabinet reshuffles in the PAP government’s history. The most recent one announced on 26 March 2009, coming just up to two years before the next general election is due, gives away some telltale signs of the election permutations that could pan out.
Pasir-Ris Punggol GRC
One PAP man, who had long been anticipated to become deputy prime minister (DPM), has finally been made one.
When then-RAdm Teo Chee Hean entered politics in the 1992 by-election, observers predicted that he would be DPM, along with Mr George Yeo, by the time Mr Lee Hsien Loong took office as Prime Minister.
That didn’t immediately happen, though, for after PM Lee was sworn-in, two DPMs who were older than him were already in place, one - Mr Wong Kan Seng - being incumbent.
The part about Mr Yeo becoming DPM did not happen, nor is DPM Teo likely to take over as prime minister, for he is merely two years younger than PM Lee.
In other words, this is the farthest DPM Teo will go in the Cabinet.
With Mr Teo’s appointment as DPM, Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC becomes a tougher “nut” to crack. Likewise, chances are he may meet with a stronger “adversary” in the next elections.
The PAP team in Pasir Ris-Punggol met a contest from a team from the SDA in the 2006 GE but there are indications that it would face a WP team the next time round.
East Coast GRC
Chances are now high that Prof S. Jayakumar will retire from politics in the next election. When the late Mr S. Rajaratnam became the first Senior Minister of the country in 1985, he retired at the next GE in 1988. As observers may discern, unless one is a former prime minister, he does not hold the SM position for more than an election term.
While the PAP cabinet is perceived to be bloated, the PAP is still wary of setting tongues wagging by having two SMs in a long-term period. Also, SM Jayakumar was relieved of his law minister portfolio in 2008. Therefore, even as SM Jayakumar leaves the Cabinet, SM Goh Chok Tong is likely to remain.
Another very likely exit in the same East Coast GRC that SM Jayakumar helms is Mr Abdullah Tarmugi, as he is one of the few PAP MPs in his 60s – a threshold at which PAP MPs are often retired.
Hence, the new leader for the PAP’s East Coast GRC team in the next GE can only be Mr Raymond Lim, the current Minister for Transport. Should the WP return to this GRC since in the next elections, it will face a new PAP anchorman.
Jalan Besar GRC and Hong Kah GRC
Another indicator of a political retirement is when a full minister steps down to become a backbencher. Normally, this is to allow him to complete his term as MP before a new PAP candidate is fielded in his place in the subsequent GE.
With that, Dr Lee Boon Yang, along with Mr Yeo Cheow Tong in Hong Kah GRC who stepped down as minister not long after the 2006 GE, are not likely to run for elections again.
Given that there is another Cabinet minister in Jalan Besar GRC - Yaacob Ibrahim - he is likeliest to be the one to replace Dr Lee as leader of the PAP team there. As Jalan Besar is a regular “turf” of the National Solidarity Party (NSP) - which contested under the SDA banner in the 2001 and 2006 GE - they are likely to face a now-independent NSP challenge in the next round.
Chua Chu Kang SMC
Now that Mr Gan Kim Yong, the SMC’s MP, is a full minister and with the absence of a full minister to helm Hong Kah GRC, one of Singapore’s longest-surviving SMCs may well be absorbed into a GRC.
In any case, Chua Chu Kang SMC is nearly surrounded by Hong Kah GRC, according to the electoral boundaries map, and such an occurrence would appear rather “natural”. Therefore, if former NCMP Steve Chia of the NSP is planning to return to the SMC for a third time, he may well need to develop a contingency plan.
Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC
As with SM Jayakumar, DPM Wong’s tenure as DPM is not likely to be much longer in lieu of his age and his most probable successor - Mr Tharman Shanmugaratnam.
However, this is probably going to take place only after the next election.
In the meantime, the GRC is likely to continue housing two Cabinet ministers - the other being education minister Dr Ng Eng Hen. This is especially so when Potong Pasir opposition MP, Mr Chiam See Tong of the SDA, has publicly announced that he will be leaving the seat he has held for six election terms to enter the fray in this GRC with a team.
Jurong GRC
One surprise retirement by the next election could be Mr Lim Boon Heng’s, who stepped down as NTUC secretary-general in 2006 in favour of Mr Lim Swee Say and currently holds no other portfolios apart from being a minister in the Prime Minister’s Office.
If that happens, the likely DPM candidate in the same GRC - Mr Tharman, as mentioned earlier - is poised to replace him as the PAP team’s anchorman. Jurong GRC was not contested in 2006 and in the 2001 elections, a Singapore Democratic Party team garnered only 20% of the votes.
It is another “tough nut” GRC to crack.
Nee Soon Central SMC
Another PAP MP who is in his 60s is Mr Ong Ah Heng. If he does quit politics, the SMC, also one of Singapore’s longest-surviving single wards, is likely to be absorbed into a neighbouring GRC.
The ward was captured by the SDP in the 1991 GE but Mr Ong, with his skills with the grassroots, defeated the opposition incumbent by 60% to 40% in 1997. While Mr Ong increased his margin to nearly 80% against another SDP candidate in 2001, an unknown and new candidate from the Workers’ Party slashed it by 15% in 2006.
This shows that the SMC has always been a potential hotbed for the PAP.
Yio Chu Kang SMC
Given the unfortunate incident involving the PAP incumbent Mr Seng Han Thong, there is a chance that he will not be seeking another term.
The SMC may be reabsorbed into Ang Mo Kio GRC, although chances put this as less likely to occur because the single ward is perceived by the PAP to be sound enough to “stand on its own feet” with any veteran PAP MP parachuted into it.
Aljunied GRC
Mrs Lim Hwee Hua, an MP of Aljunied GRC, has been appointed to the Cabinet and becomes the first female full minister.
Effectively, this increases the stakes of a second Aljunied GRC battle when the PAP meets its opposing WP team, expected to be led once again by another key woman politician - WP’s chairman Ms Sylvia Lim, whose stature has, like Mrs Lim, also since increased with her NCMP stint.
The GRC is presently anchored by another more experienced minister, Mr George Yeo.
The other to watch is whether Mr Zainul Abidin Mohamed Rasheed, a strong grassroots man capable of winning the Malay swing voters, would also call it quits after his post of Northeast CDC mayor was assigned to Mr Teo Ser Luck.
Mr Zainul Abidin is past 60 and ministers of state are normally retired younger but before an election.
Tampines GRC and Sembawang GRC
Yet another surprise retirement could be Mr Mah Bow Tan’s, who currently holds the position of national development minister. This is because Mr Mah is one of the oldest and longest-serving PAP minister in the cabinet.
Should that happen in the next GE, the only GRC with two cabinet ministers - save for the tough battlegrounds of Bishan Toa-Payoh GRC and Aljunied GRC - is Sembawang GRC.
In this hypothesis, law minister Mr K Shanmugam could be shifted to helm the PAP Tampines GRC team.
The PAP team’s leader in Sembawang, Mr Khaw Boon Wan, is unlikely to move, for he had already been shifted once - from Tanjong Pagar GRC - and he has shown himself capable of helming a GRC on his own in the 2006 election.
In conclusion, the above possible ministerial retirements are not to be unexpected and cannot be ruled out, for with the latest appointments, the government cabinet has further bloated from 18 to 21 ministers.
http://forums.delphiforums.com/sunkopitiam/messages?msg=25293.1
There have been many cabinet reshuffles in the PAP government’s history. The most recent one announced on 26 March 2009, coming just up to two years before the next general election is due, gives away some telltale signs of the election permutations that could pan out.
Pasir-Ris Punggol GRC
One PAP man, who had long been anticipated to become deputy prime minister (DPM), has finally been made one.
When then-RAdm Teo Chee Hean entered politics in the 1992 by-election, observers predicted that he would be DPM, along with Mr George Yeo, by the time Mr Lee Hsien Loong took office as Prime Minister.
That didn’t immediately happen, though, for after PM Lee was sworn-in, two DPMs who were older than him were already in place, one - Mr Wong Kan Seng - being incumbent.
The part about Mr Yeo becoming DPM did not happen, nor is DPM Teo likely to take over as prime minister, for he is merely two years younger than PM Lee.
In other words, this is the farthest DPM Teo will go in the Cabinet.
With Mr Teo’s appointment as DPM, Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC becomes a tougher “nut” to crack. Likewise, chances are he may meet with a stronger “adversary” in the next elections.
The PAP team in Pasir Ris-Punggol met a contest from a team from the SDA in the 2006 GE but there are indications that it would face a WP team the next time round.
East Coast GRC
Chances are now high that Prof S. Jayakumar will retire from politics in the next election. When the late Mr S. Rajaratnam became the first Senior Minister of the country in 1985, he retired at the next GE in 1988. As observers may discern, unless one is a former prime minister, he does not hold the SM position for more than an election term.
While the PAP cabinet is perceived to be bloated, the PAP is still wary of setting tongues wagging by having two SMs in a long-term period. Also, SM Jayakumar was relieved of his law minister portfolio in 2008. Therefore, even as SM Jayakumar leaves the Cabinet, SM Goh Chok Tong is likely to remain.
Another very likely exit in the same East Coast GRC that SM Jayakumar helms is Mr Abdullah Tarmugi, as he is one of the few PAP MPs in his 60s – a threshold at which PAP MPs are often retired.
Hence, the new leader for the PAP’s East Coast GRC team in the next GE can only be Mr Raymond Lim, the current Minister for Transport. Should the WP return to this GRC since in the next elections, it will face a new PAP anchorman.
Jalan Besar GRC and Hong Kah GRC
Another indicator of a political retirement is when a full minister steps down to become a backbencher. Normally, this is to allow him to complete his term as MP before a new PAP candidate is fielded in his place in the subsequent GE.
With that, Dr Lee Boon Yang, along with Mr Yeo Cheow Tong in Hong Kah GRC who stepped down as minister not long after the 2006 GE, are not likely to run for elections again.
Given that there is another Cabinet minister in Jalan Besar GRC - Yaacob Ibrahim - he is likeliest to be the one to replace Dr Lee as leader of the PAP team there. As Jalan Besar is a regular “turf” of the National Solidarity Party (NSP) - which contested under the SDA banner in the 2001 and 2006 GE - they are likely to face a now-independent NSP challenge in the next round.
Chua Chu Kang SMC
Now that Mr Gan Kim Yong, the SMC’s MP, is a full minister and with the absence of a full minister to helm Hong Kah GRC, one of Singapore’s longest-surviving SMCs may well be absorbed into a GRC.
In any case, Chua Chu Kang SMC is nearly surrounded by Hong Kah GRC, according to the electoral boundaries map, and such an occurrence would appear rather “natural”. Therefore, if former NCMP Steve Chia of the NSP is planning to return to the SMC for a third time, he may well need to develop a contingency plan.
Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC
As with SM Jayakumar, DPM Wong’s tenure as DPM is not likely to be much longer in lieu of his age and his most probable successor - Mr Tharman Shanmugaratnam.
However, this is probably going to take place only after the next election.
In the meantime, the GRC is likely to continue housing two Cabinet ministers - the other being education minister Dr Ng Eng Hen. This is especially so when Potong Pasir opposition MP, Mr Chiam See Tong of the SDA, has publicly announced that he will be leaving the seat he has held for six election terms to enter the fray in this GRC with a team.
Jurong GRC
One surprise retirement by the next election could be Mr Lim Boon Heng’s, who stepped down as NTUC secretary-general in 2006 in favour of Mr Lim Swee Say and currently holds no other portfolios apart from being a minister in the Prime Minister’s Office.
If that happens, the likely DPM candidate in the same GRC - Mr Tharman, as mentioned earlier - is poised to replace him as the PAP team’s anchorman. Jurong GRC was not contested in 2006 and in the 2001 elections, a Singapore Democratic Party team garnered only 20% of the votes.
It is another “tough nut” GRC to crack.
Nee Soon Central SMC
Another PAP MP who is in his 60s is Mr Ong Ah Heng. If he does quit politics, the SMC, also one of Singapore’s longest-surviving single wards, is likely to be absorbed into a neighbouring GRC.
The ward was captured by the SDP in the 1991 GE but Mr Ong, with his skills with the grassroots, defeated the opposition incumbent by 60% to 40% in 1997. While Mr Ong increased his margin to nearly 80% against another SDP candidate in 2001, an unknown and new candidate from the Workers’ Party slashed it by 15% in 2006.
This shows that the SMC has always been a potential hotbed for the PAP.
Yio Chu Kang SMC
Given the unfortunate incident involving the PAP incumbent Mr Seng Han Thong, there is a chance that he will not be seeking another term.
The SMC may be reabsorbed into Ang Mo Kio GRC, although chances put this as less likely to occur because the single ward is perceived by the PAP to be sound enough to “stand on its own feet” with any veteran PAP MP parachuted into it.
Aljunied GRC
Mrs Lim Hwee Hua, an MP of Aljunied GRC, has been appointed to the Cabinet and becomes the first female full minister.
Effectively, this increases the stakes of a second Aljunied GRC battle when the PAP meets its opposing WP team, expected to be led once again by another key woman politician - WP’s chairman Ms Sylvia Lim, whose stature has, like Mrs Lim, also since increased with her NCMP stint.
The GRC is presently anchored by another more experienced minister, Mr George Yeo.
The other to watch is whether Mr Zainul Abidin Mohamed Rasheed, a strong grassroots man capable of winning the Malay swing voters, would also call it quits after his post of Northeast CDC mayor was assigned to Mr Teo Ser Luck.
Mr Zainul Abidin is past 60 and ministers of state are normally retired younger but before an election.
Tampines GRC and Sembawang GRC
Yet another surprise retirement could be Mr Mah Bow Tan’s, who currently holds the position of national development minister. This is because Mr Mah is one of the oldest and longest-serving PAP minister in the cabinet.
Should that happen in the next GE, the only GRC with two cabinet ministers - save for the tough battlegrounds of Bishan Toa-Payoh GRC and Aljunied GRC - is Sembawang GRC.
In this hypothesis, law minister Mr K Shanmugam could be shifted to helm the PAP Tampines GRC team.
The PAP team’s leader in Sembawang, Mr Khaw Boon Wan, is unlikely to move, for he had already been shifted once - from Tanjong Pagar GRC - and he has shown himself capable of helming a GRC on his own in the 2006 election.
In conclusion, the above possible ministerial retirements are not to be unexpected and cannot be ruled out, for with the latest appointments, the government cabinet has further bloated from 18 to 21 ministers.
http://forums.delphiforums.com/sunkopitiam/messages?msg=25293.1
Saturday, March 14, 2009
don’t fight in a three way cul-de-sac
don’t fight in a three way cul-de-sac, do it one on one, please.
A cul-de-sac (plural: culs-de-sac), close, or court (American and Australian English) is a dead-end street with only one inlet/outlet.
As usual, the ST engaged in their usual speculations about the opposition moves for the imminent elections(in my view) in their Insight post. I must commend the ST on a good job done. After all, lifting and copying from online sources, alongside baseless speculation are something they regularly engage in.
They have said nothing new except a confession from a PAP activist that electoral boundaries are redrawn to PAP’s advantage. Look at the quote as below. Thanks for the admission in gerrymandering. If I am to interpret this, its as good as PAP saying: we love to gerrymander and we can, so what can you do?
‘Since the PAP did not do well in Aljunied GRC in 2006, the weakest link there could be moved out and put into Ang Mo Kio GRC – which, no matter what, is still much stronger’.
But their usual arrogance aside, I personally urge all opposition parties to sit down once again and work things out. I’ve written before about the need for opposition unity. History has shown us clearly that divide-and-rule is the best method for controlling opposition, and time and time again, our opposition has fallen into PAP’s trap, no thanks to the shameless newspaper known as the Straits Times.
I am well-aware before the article came out that the Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC is eyed by more than 2 opposition parties. Hence I would like to urge the opposition parties to NOT fight amongst themselves along with the PAP. Sit down, make concessions and work things out, or the opposition parties will lose as a whole, and PAP will continue in its dominance and arrogance. Attacking an inept Minister like Mr Wong Kan Seng is easy, and easily replicated by all the opposition parties. You just need to say the magic words “Mas Selemat”. However, winning against his party isn’t, especially when there are more than one opposition competing for the already limited opposition vote. The same goes for Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC. Do not be petty. If you guys are truly sincere about winning entry into Parliament for Singaporeans, it does not really matter who gets in, as long as a GRC is taken down.
I will admit that I will most definitely vote for the opposition, no matter who they put there, even a monkey. PAP needs to get out of my non-elite but caring face. What I will not admit is that if there is more than a two way contest, I will not be surewho to vote for so as to help the opposition cause, and I am sure lesser mortals, who cannot wait to remind the greater-mortals about whose really the boss, will also face the same dilemma.
Once again, please. Listen to MM Lee, for once, and meet him one v one in a cul-de-sac. Not meet him and his party, along with the other opposition parties in a three-way or four-way cul-de-sac. In such a scenario, the only losers will be Singaporeans who genuinely hope for change, and if you, as a member of the opposition,are really working for Singapore and Singaporeans, that’s something you will not want to see, right?
http://forums.delphiforums.com/sunkopitiam/messages?msg=24172.1
A cul-de-sac (plural: culs-de-sac), close, or court (American and Australian English) is a dead-end street with only one inlet/outlet.
As usual, the ST engaged in their usual speculations about the opposition moves for the imminent elections(in my view) in their Insight post. I must commend the ST on a good job done. After all, lifting and copying from online sources, alongside baseless speculation are something they regularly engage in.
They have said nothing new except a confession from a PAP activist that electoral boundaries are redrawn to PAP’s advantage. Look at the quote as below. Thanks for the admission in gerrymandering. If I am to interpret this, its as good as PAP saying: we love to gerrymander and we can, so what can you do?
‘Since the PAP did not do well in Aljunied GRC in 2006, the weakest link there could be moved out and put into Ang Mo Kio GRC – which, no matter what, is still much stronger’.
But their usual arrogance aside, I personally urge all opposition parties to sit down once again and work things out. I’ve written before about the need for opposition unity. History has shown us clearly that divide-and-rule is the best method for controlling opposition, and time and time again, our opposition has fallen into PAP’s trap, no thanks to the shameless newspaper known as the Straits Times.
I am well-aware before the article came out that the Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC is eyed by more than 2 opposition parties. Hence I would like to urge the opposition parties to NOT fight amongst themselves along with the PAP. Sit down, make concessions and work things out, or the opposition parties will lose as a whole, and PAP will continue in its dominance and arrogance. Attacking an inept Minister like Mr Wong Kan Seng is easy, and easily replicated by all the opposition parties. You just need to say the magic words “Mas Selemat”. However, winning against his party isn’t, especially when there are more than one opposition competing for the already limited opposition vote. The same goes for Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC. Do not be petty. If you guys are truly sincere about winning entry into Parliament for Singaporeans, it does not really matter who gets in, as long as a GRC is taken down.
I will admit that I will most definitely vote for the opposition, no matter who they put there, even a monkey. PAP needs to get out of my non-elite but caring face. What I will not admit is that if there is more than a two way contest, I will not be surewho to vote for so as to help the opposition cause, and I am sure lesser mortals, who cannot wait to remind the greater-mortals about whose really the boss, will also face the same dilemma.
Once again, please. Listen to MM Lee, for once, and meet him one v one in a cul-de-sac. Not meet him and his party, along with the other opposition parties in a three-way or four-way cul-de-sac. In such a scenario, the only losers will be Singaporeans who genuinely hope for change, and if you, as a member of the opposition,are really working for Singapore and Singaporeans, that’s something you will not want to see, right?
http://forums.delphiforums.com/sunkopitiam/messages?msg=24172.1
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