Thursday, April 23, 2009

Singapore 10% GDP drop, 7.5% unemployment likely: IMF report

Singapore 10% GDP drop, 7.5% unemployment likely: IMF report

Singapore faces the sharpest recession and highest unemployment among major Asia-Pacific economies, according to the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook report.

Singapore's gross domestic product is expected to shrink 10 percent this year – more than any of its neighbours' - and a further 0.1 percent next year when others are expected to begin to recover.

Unemployment is expected to rise from 3.1 percent to 7.5 percent this year and 8.6 percent next year.

Consumer prices are expected to remain stable this year and go up by 1.1 percent next year.

The world economy is expected to contract 1.3 percent this year but grow 1.9 percent next year.

Here are the figures for the other Asia-Pacific economies. Unemployment figures are not available for all, but among those available, it is highest in Singapore.

All figures in percentages

Country GDP growth 2009 GDP growth
2010
Unemployment 2009 Unemployment 2010
China 6.5 7.5
Japan -6.2 0.5 4.6 5.6
India 4.5 5.6
Hong Kong -4.5 0.5 6.3 7.5
Singapore -10 -0.1 7.5 8.6
Malaysia -3.5 1.3
Thailand -3 1
Indonesia 2.5 3.5
Philippines 0 1
Taiwan -7.5 0 6.3 6.1
South Korea -4 1.5 3.8 3.6
Australia -1.4 0.6 6.8 7.8
New Zealand -2 0.5 6.5 7.5

Here are charts with more data from the IMF report which can be downloaded as a PDF file.

IMFGDPpricejobs2007-2010

IMF_Asian_economies-2009-10
The IMF report says:

The crisis has spread quickly to Asia and has dramatically affected its economies. Japan’s economy contracted at a 12 percent (annualized) rate in the fourth quarter. The newly industrialized economies (Hong Kong SAR, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan) declined at rates between 10 percent and 25 percent, and Southeast Asian emerging economies have also been badly damaged. These falls resulted mostly from the collapse in demand for consumer durable goods and capital goods in (non-Asian) advanced economies and, to a lesser degree, the deterioration in global financial conditions.

China and India have also been affected by contraction in the export sector, but their economies have continued to grow because trade is a smaller share of the economy and policy measures have supported domestic activity.

The report adds:

Activity in advanced Asia is expected to drop sharply, and some economies could even experience deflation. Emerging Asia is expected to continue to grow, led by China
and India. A modest recovery is projected in 2010.

The Japanese economy is projected to contract by 6¼ percent in 2009. Given their extreme openness and high dependence on external demand, the other advanced economies in the region – Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan Province of China––will also suffer. Singapore and Hong Kong are particularly exposed, given their importance as global financial centres. Growth in China is expected to slow to about 6½ percent in 2009.

http://forums.delphiforums.com/sunkopitiam/messages?msg=27730.1

No comments:

Post a Comment