Singapore 10% GDP drop, 7.5% unemployment likely: IMF report

Singapore 10% GDP drop, 7.5% unemployment likely: IMF report

Singapore faces the sharpest recession and highest unemployment among major Asia-Pacific economies, according to the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook report.

Singapore's gross domestic product is expected to shrink 10 percent this year – more than any of its neighbours' - and a further 0.1 percent next year when others are expected to begin to recover.

Unemployment is expected to rise from 3.1 percent to 7.5 percent this year and 8.6 percent next year.

Consumer prices are expected to remain stable this year and go up by 1.1 percent next year.

The world economy is expected to contract 1.3 percent this year but grow 1.9 percent next year.

Here are the figures for the other Asia-Pacific economies. Unemployment figures are not available for all, but among those available, it is highest in Singapore.

All figures in percentages

Country	GDP growth 2009	GDP growth 2010	Unemployment 2009	Unemployment 2010
China	6.5	7.5
Japan	-6.2	0.5	4.6	5.6
India	4.5	5.6
Hong Kong	-4.5	0.5	6.3	7.5
Singapore	-10	-0.1	7.5	8.6
Malaysia	-3.5	1.3
Thailand	-3	1
Indonesia	2.5	3.5
Philippines	0	1
Taiwan	-7.5	0	6.3	6.1
South Korea	-4	1.5	3.8	3.6
Australia	-1.4	0.6	6.8	7.8
New Zealand	-2	0.5	6.5	7.5

Here are charts with more data from the IMF report which can be downloaded as a PDF file.

The IMF report says:

The crisis has spread quickly to Asia and has dramatically affected its economies. Japan’s economy contracted at a 12 percent (annualized) rate in the fourth quarter. The newly industrialized economies (Hong Kong SAR, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan) declined at rates between 10 percent and 25 percent, and Southeast Asian emerging economies have also been badly damaged. These falls resulted mostly from the collapse in demand for consumer durable goods and capital goods in (non-Asian) advanced economies and, to a lesser degree, the deterioration in global financial conditions.

China and India have also been affected by contraction in the export sector, but their economies have continued to grow because trade is a smaller share of the economy and policy measures have supported domestic activity.

The report adds:

Activity in advanced Asia is expected to drop sharply, and some economies could even experience deflation. Emerging Asia is expected to continue to grow, led by China
and India. A modest recovery is projected in 2010.

The Japanese economy is projected to contract by 6¼ percent in 2009. Given their extreme openness and high dependence on external demand, the other advanced economies in the region – Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan Province of China––will also suffer. Singapore and Hong Kong are particularly exposed, given their importance as global financial centres. Growth in China is expected to slow to about 6½ percent in 2009.

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Soros sees risk of Britain needing IMF bailout

Soros sees risk of Britain needing IMF bailout
Posted: 28 March 2009 2033 hrs

	Photos 1 of 1 George Soros

LONDON : Hungarian-born US billionaire George Soros said in a report on Saturday it was "conceivable" that Britain would have to resort to a bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

"It's conceivable," Soros said in an interview with the Times. "You have a problem that the banking system is bigger than the economy... so for Britain to absorb it alone would really pile up the debt."

Soros said that "if the banking system continued to collapse, it's (an IMF bailout) a possibility but it's not a likelihood."

The man who made one billion dollars on selling the pound on Black Wednesday in 1992 described the current recession as a "once-in-a-lifetime event", particularly in Britain.

"This is a crisis unlike any other. It's a total collapse of the financial system with tremendous implications for everyday life.

"On previous occasions when you had a crisis that was threatening the system the authorities intervened and did whatever was necessary to protect the system. This time they failed."

He said he feared the problem in Britain, with its huge financial and banking interests, could be greater than in the United States.

"American memory is seared by the Depression, the German memory is seared by hyperinflation but Britain has a pretty serious problem in many ways worse than America because the financial sector looms bigger and the overvaluation of real estate is bigger than in America."

Soros said the G20 summit in London next week was the world's last chance to avert economic disaster, but he was not optimistic of a breakthrough in efforts to spur the global economy into recovery.

"The odds would favour that it fails because there are such differences of opinion. It's difficult enough to get it right in your own country let alone with 20 governments coming together, but if it's a failure I think then the global financial and trading system falls apart," he said.

"It's really a make-or-break occasion. That's why it's so important."

Increasing IMF funding to allow it to intervene to help troubled economies is one of the main issues on the G20 agenda. - AFP/ms

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